Bitcoin spends 56% of trading days below its trend line. Residual sigma compressed from 0.39 (2010 to 2014) to 0.15 (2023 to 2026), a 2.6x tightening.
Is Bitcoin cheap or expensive?
The trend value shows where Bitcoin's price sits relative to its long-term power law growth. Below 1.00 = below the trend = cheaper than average.
Days per year in each price zone, by halving era. The distribution compresses toward fair value each cycle.
The lines tell the story: Bitcoin's swings around the power law trend are getting smaller every cycle. The distribution's scale has dropped from σ = 0.39 (2010–2014) to σ = 0.15 (2023–2026) — a 2.6× compression. The wild early days of 0.20x and 15x are structurally behind us. Today's range is tighter, the trend more reliable, and being at 0.72x carries more signal than it ever has.
Below 1.00 = Bitcoin is cheaper than its long-term growth line. The lower the number, the bigger the discount. Right now at 0.72x, a return to trend alone means a +39% move — and the trend keeps growing every day.