Power-law floor, live
$66,212.31
The floor is 0.42× Bitcoin’s power-law trend. It never stops rising: ~36% / yr, a few cents every minute.
Bitcoin price
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Why trust the floor
The floor is not a forecast. It is a line that Bitcoin’s price has kept returning to, with swings that get smaller every cycle.
Bitcoin’s price divided by the floor. Cycle peaks went 37×, 26×, 14×, 7.7× and 2.9× the floor. In between, price keeps returning to 1×.
How the swings are shrinking: Volatility Decay AnalysisA single power law fits 5,944 daily closes, from $0.09 in 2010 to $123k in 2025. Other researchers reach the same exponent independently.
See the full historyPrice closed below the floor on 223 days across 23 dips, and recovered every time. The longest dip lasted 86 days. It would take 125 days in a row to break the model.
Try to break the floor yourselfUse it
When your spending fits inside the floor’s growth, a crash no longer decides when you can stop working.
Enter your stack, your spending and your age. Sats Planner shows the year the floor alone can carry you, and how much room the rest of Bitcoin’s volatility leaves.
Open the Retire plannerObservatory Pro · Founding members
Pro emails you the day Bitcoin changes zone or moves 20% in a week, sends a monthly look back and forward, and gives you the Wealth Playbook the day you join. In the floor zone, one lump sum beat 12 monthly buys every time since 2015, by a median of 54% more bitcoin. In the hot zone it lost three times out of four.
Daily closes since 2015 with a full year after them. Educational, not financial advice. Past results, not a promise.
The research
Start with the synthesis, or go straight to the paper behind a number.