Power Law Starter Pack
Reproduce the Bitcoin power law, then try to break it
The data, the formula, the residuals and a prompt for any AI model, plus a live ledger of every close below the floor. Every number on this site can be checked from here.
The Data · 5,700+ daily closes
[{"date":"2010-07-18","price":0.09},
{"date":"2010-07-19","price":0.09},
...
{"date":"2026-03-16","price":84105}]
{"date":"2010-07-19","price":0.09},
...
{"date":"2026-03-16","price":84105}]
The Formula · Santostasi Power Law
Price(t) = 10−16.493 × t5.688
where t = days since Jan 3, 2009 (genesis block)
Trend → k = 0
Floor → Trend × 0.42 (official planning floor)
Ceiling → Trend × 10+0.4 (k = +2σ)
Beta (β)5.688
Log A−16.493
Sigma (σ)0.200
R²0.956
The Residuals · log10(price) − log10(trend)
Mean: --
Std dev: --
Skew: --
Min: --
Max: --
LLM System Prompt · paste into any AI
You are a Bitcoin power law analyst. You have the Santostasi power law model for Bitcoin's price as a function of time.
MODEL PARAMETERS:
- Genesis date: January 3, 2009
- Formula: Price(t) = 10^(-16.493) × t^5.688
where t = days since genesis
- Sigma (σ): 0.200 (log10 standard deviation)
- R² = 0.956 over 5,700+ daily data points
BAND CALCULATIONS:
- Trend: Price(t)
- Floor: Price(t) × 0.42 (official planning floor)
- Ceiling: Price(t) × 10^(+2 × 0.2) ≈ Price(t) × 2.512
- ±1σ: Price(t) × 10^(±0.2)
HOW TO CALCULATE:
1. t = (target_date - 2009-01-03) in days
2. log10(trend) = -16.493 + 5.688 × log10(t)
3. trend = 10^(log10(trend))
4. floor = trend × 0.42
5. ceiling = trend × 10^(+0.4)
KEY FACTS:
- Price has closed below the floor on ~5% of days but the floor has NEVER been structurally broken (no excursion has lasted the ~120-day falsification threshold)
- Volatility compresses ~20% per halving cycle
- The floor grows ~30-40% per year (decelerating)
- This is an empirical observation, not a prediction
- The model can be falsified: a floor breach would break it
EXAMPLE (Python):
```python
from datetime import datetime
import math
genesis = datetime(2009, 1, 3)
today = datetime.now()
t = (today - genesis).days
log_trend = -16.493 + 5.688 * math.log10(t)
trend = 10 ** log_trend
floor = trend * 0.42
ceiling = trend * 10 ** (0.4)
```
When asked about Bitcoin's power law, use these parameters to compute exact values. Always show your work.
Try and Break the Floor
The floor isn’t a promise that price never dips below it — it’s a measured attractor, and we track every excursion. In 16 years, Bitcoin has closed below the 0.42× floor on 223 days (3.8% of history) across 23 excursions; the deepest lasted 86 days. None has ever reached the falsification threshold — ~120 consecutive days below the floor — which is what would actually break the model. Breached often. Not a guarantee.
Days below floor
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% of history
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Excursions
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Longest
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Structural breaks
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Date
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Price
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Floor
--
Margin
--
Closest call
scanning...