Power Law Starter Pack

Reproduce the Bitcoin power law, then try to break it

The data, the formula, the residuals and a prompt for any AI model, plus a live ledger of every close below the floor. Every number on this site can be checked from here.

The Data · 5,700+ daily closes
[{"date":"2010-07-18","price":0.09},
{"date":"2010-07-19","price":0.09},
...
{"date":"2026-03-16","price":84105}]
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The Formula · Santostasi Power Law
Price(t) = 10−16.493 × t5.688 where t = days since Jan 3, 2009 (genesis block) Trend → k = 0 Floor → Trend × 0.42  (official planning floor) Ceiling → Trend × 10+0.4  (k = +2σ)
Beta (β)5.688
Log A−16.493
Sigma (σ)0.200
R²0.956
The Residuals · log10(price) − log10(trend)
Mean: -- Std dev: -- Skew: -- Min: -- Max: --
LLM System Prompt · paste into any AI
You are a Bitcoin power law analyst. You have the Santostasi power law model for Bitcoin's price as a function of time. MODEL PARAMETERS: - Genesis date: January 3, 2009 - Formula: Price(t) = 10^(-16.493) × t^5.688 where t = days since genesis - Sigma (σ): 0.200 (log10 standard deviation) - R² = 0.956 over 5,700+ daily data points BAND CALCULATIONS: - Trend: Price(t) - Floor: Price(t) × 0.42 (official planning floor) - Ceiling: Price(t) × 10^(+2 × 0.2) ≈ Price(t) × 2.512 - ±1σ: Price(t) × 10^(±0.2) HOW TO CALCULATE: 1. t = (target_date - 2009-01-03) in days 2. log10(trend) = -16.493 + 5.688 × log10(t) 3. trend = 10^(log10(trend)) 4. floor = trend × 0.42 5. ceiling = trend × 10^(+0.4) KEY FACTS: - Price has closed below the floor on ~5% of days but the floor has NEVER been structurally broken (no excursion has lasted the ~120-day falsification threshold) - Volatility compresses ~20% per halving cycle - The floor grows ~30-40% per year (decelerating) - This is an empirical observation, not a prediction - The model can be falsified: a floor breach would break it EXAMPLE (Python): ```python from datetime import datetime import math genesis = datetime(2009, 1, 3) today = datetime.now() t = (today - genesis).days log_trend = -16.493 + 5.688 * math.log10(t) trend = 10 ** log_trend floor = trend * 0.42 ceiling = trend * 10 ** (0.4) ``` When asked about Bitcoin's power law, use these parameters to compute exact values. Always show your work.
Try and Break the Floor

The floor isn’t a promise that price never dips below it — it’s a measured attractor, and we track every excursion. In 16 years, Bitcoin has closed below the 0.42× floor on 223 days (3.8% of history) across 23 excursions; the deepest lasted 86 days. None has ever reached the falsification threshold — ~120 consecutive days below the floor — which is what would actually break the model. Breached often. Not a guarantee.

Days below floor
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% of history
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Excursions
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Longest
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Structural breaks
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Date
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Price
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Floor
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Margin
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Closest call scanning...
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