Adoption Signals

Five layers of adoption. Two dimensions per layer. Is the power law’s engine still running?

All clear. Four of five layers accelerating. One mixed signal explained by migration. No early warning indicators triggered.
Mar 2026

Early Warning Indicators

Clear
ETF Outflows
Threshold: 6+ consecutive months net outflows
Current: 0 of 6. Q1 2026: +$18.7B net inflows.
Clear
Treasury Decline
Threshold: Net decrease in entity count over 12 months
Current: Net adds every quarter since 2020. 164 entities.
Clear
Regulatory Reversal
Threshold: More countries banning than enabling per year
Current: 45 legal vs 10 banned. Direction: enabling.
−2.3%
On-chain 0.1+ BTC addresses (YoY)
migrating
+$18.7B
Spot ETF net inflows Q1 2026
The one mixed signal, explained.

On-chain addresses holding 0.1+ BTC are declining while ETF inflows surge. This is not abandonment—it is migration. Holders are moving from self-custody to regulated financial products. The capital stays in Bitcoin; only the custody layer changes. When L1 dips but L4 surges, the funnel is working exactly as expected.

Five Layers

Weight: how much has been committed. Distribution: how spread out and resilient.

1
Individual Accumulation
Mixed Live
Weight
Global holders106M–500M growing
Addr ≥ 0.01 BTC12.4M+ +4%
Addr ≥ 1 BTC~950K stable
2016Addr ≥ 0.012026
Distribution
Addr ≥ 0.1 BTC4.44M −2.3%
Whale concentrationDeclining healthier
ETF migrationActive L1→L4
Source: Glassnode / BM Pro
2
Network Infrastructure
Strong Live
Weight
Hash rate900+ EH/s +35%
Est. energy~18 GW growing
Reachable nodes~17,000 stable
2016Hash rate2026
Distribution
Mining countries (>1%)12+ post-ban
Top-3 share~55% was 75%
Node countries50+ stable
Source: blockchain.info / bitnodes.io
3
Corporate Treasury
Strong Quarterly
Weight
BTC held1.8M 8.6% supply
Entities164 +40% YoY
2016Entity count2026
Distribution
Top-3 share~60% concentrated
SectorsTech / finance / mining broad
GeographiesUS / JP / EU / APAC growing
Source: CoinGecko / BitcoinTreasuries
4
Financial Products
Strong Daily
Weight
Spot ETF AUM (US)~$97B +$18.7B Q1
Cumulative inflows$65B+ since Jan ’24
2016ETF AUM2026
Distribution
US issuers11 stable
IBIT share~45% dominant
Global marketsUS / CA / EU / HK / AU 5+
Source: CoinGlass / Newhedge
5
Sovereign & Regulatory
Strong Quarterly
Weight
Legal45 countries enabling
Partial ban20 stable
Banned10 not growing
2018Countries: legal2026
Distribution
Legal tender2 (ES, CAR) stable
G20 legal12 of 20 57%+ GDP
FrameworksMiCA / GENIUS new
Source: Atlantic Council
The Adoption Funnel — five layers from individual accumulation to sovereign adoption

Paper 13: The Adoption Funnel

The framework behind this dashboard. Five layers of adoption, two dimensions per layer, three early warning indicators. A structural health check for the power law thesis.

Read the paper

Not financial advice. L1–L2 metrics update on page load. L3–L5 curated quarterly. Sources linked per metric.